Sound the Alarm? A Swine Flu Bind

For all that scientists have learned about influenza since the catastrophic pandemic of 1917-19, one thing has not changed: the predictably unpredictable nature of the viruses that cause it.The sudden detection of the new swine influenza virus, A(H1N1), occurred just as scientists were focusing wary eyes on behavioral changes observed in another virus, the A(H5N1) bird flustrain, in Egypt. Virologists have tracked the avian virus since its discovery in Hong Kong in 1997. The World Health Organization said over the weekend that the new swine flu virus had the potential to cause another pandemic, but that it had no way of knowing whether it actually would.The W.H.O. and public-health agencies like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention find themselves in a delicate balance, obliged to provide information about potentially lethal diseases without causing panic. Although health officials have held exercises to prepare for pandemics and outbreaks caused by bioterrorism, they have yet to master the necessary communications skills. They are in a “damned if they do, damned if they don’t” situation.A decision about travel restrictions or advisories, for example, could affect trade and finances at a time of economic chaos. If the public health emergency declared by the W.H.O. and the Obama administration turns out to be a false alarm, officials will be ridiculed for unnecessarily worrying millions of people — perhaps even for creating fear to justify their budgets. If a pandemic materializes, some of the same critics are very likely to blame officials for failing to prevent it. History teaches that the influenza virus mutates to cause worldwide spread about twice a century, on average. But scientists have yet to figure out what causes the mutations, when they will occur and what makes certain viruses more lethal than others. CONTINUE READING....