Federal health officials said Thursday that almost 10,000 people had died of swine flu since April, a significant jump from mortality numbers released last month.A month ago, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that only about 4,000 had died.Officials also said 50 million Americans, or one sixth of the country,
had caught the disease, and that 213,000 had been sick enough to be
hospitalized.Several flu
experts said they were not shocked by the sudden jump because the new
figures come from a period of time that ended November 14, as this
fall’s wave of swine flu cases was reaching its peak.The
previous estimate of 4,000 deaths, issued last month, was only through
mid-October. By next month, deaths should not have risen quite so
abruptly because the fall wave is now tapering off and hospitals have fewer people in intensive care, experts said.“I’m not surprised,” said Lone Simonsen, an epidemiologist at George Washington University’s school of public health. “This includes most of the fall wave.”How many will ultimately die of swine flu will depend heavily on
whether there is a third wave in January, as happened in the 1918 and
1957 pandemics, and on whether the virus changes to be more lethal or
more drug-resistant.Predicting that “requires a crystal ball,” Dr. Simonsen added.Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, director of the C.D.C., said that about 85 million doses of swine flu vaccine
are now available. Some states have so much that they are now asking
everyone over six months to get vaccinated, not just high-risk
individuals. There is “still a good window of opportunity” to get
vaccinated, Dr. Frieden said, adding that he plans to get the nasal
spray vaccine himself “in a few days.” Separate mutations making the flu more lethal and more drug-resistant have been spotted in many countries, but thus far only in small numbers of isolated cases. Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, agreed that trying to guess how many will die by spring “is calling the score at half time.”
He was troubled by recent predictions that the pandemic would be the mildest on record. “So the C.D.C. says 50 million have been infected so far,” he said. “Another 50 million have been vaccinated. And maybe 20 million have got innate immunity because of their age. You do the math — that’s 120 million who are immune out of 320 million, so two-thirds of the population is still not immune. It’s amazing how many people are acting as if this is all wrapped up. The numbers could still go up dramatically.” SOURCE:NYTIMES.COM
